Trail Running's Wallet Has Already Moved to China
Last week at ISPO Shanghai, I wasn't expecting trail running to dominate the agenda. Yet in a single afternoon, from one stage, I watched more than six Chinese trail races announced back to back.
That surprised me. Because trail running is still widely seen as a niche European sport. Yet the numbers tell another story.
In 2025, China hosted over 800 trail races (vs 594 marathon races; ITRA ranks China as the fastest-growing trail market globally). The Moganshan race weekend drew around 11,000 runners — on par with UTMB week in Chamonix. And this January, Kilian said something foreign brands should sit with: China and Southeast Asia is now the economic engine of the sport.
Most people outside China read that as "China is catching up." I think they're looking at the wrong signal. Look at where the capital is flowing:
1. Kilian's own numbers: over 8 million active trail runners in China, a ¥9.2B gear market. The Golden Trail Series now puts bigger prize money into its Asian races than its European or American ones.
2. The athlete market is on fire. Over five years, signing fees for Chinese trail runners grew 5–10×. A Chinese elite runner now costs more than an international one of the same level — roughly ¥1M vs €50–100K for an international peer.
3. The scramble is happening now. Salomon, HOKA and Kailas are in a three-way race for talent. In 2026 alone, Shen Jiasheng moved to Salomon, Yao Miao to Nike ACG, and Arc'teryx is reportedly in talks with multiple Chinese athletes.
So what's actually going on? It's not that China is catching up. It's the geography of this industry that has changed. The soul stays European — UTMB, Western States, the athletes brands put in their ads.
But the money moved East. Policy, social media, and brands all converged at the same time:
• Policy: China wrote outdoor sports into its 2022 national plan, targeting a ¥3-trillion industry by 2025.
• People: Marathon fields hit saturation; runners graduated from asphalt to trails as the natural next step.
• Social media: RedNote (Xiaohongshu)'s #人生首野 (your first trail run) hashtag went viral in 2023 — trail-running searches jumped 336% year-on-year — turning trail running into a lifestyle content category and collapsing the learning curve for first-timers.
• Outdoor brands dramatically increased sponsorship budgets.
Demand for elite athletes expanded overnight, but the supply didn't. That's why Chinese runners suddenly became expensive.
China rarely changes the rules first. It always changes the scale first — and eventually, scale changes the rules. And trail running won't be the last category where this happens. We've already seen China reshape EVs, beauty and consumer electronics. Outdoor sports may simply be the next industry where the cultural center stays in the West, while the commercial center shifts East.
This is #3 from what I saw at ISPO. Still coming: how running and cycling communities are quietly becoming the retail channel, and why climbing and golf might be the next crossover bets for brands entering China's outdoor market.